Partha Sen’s “Numbers Don’t Lie” Blog

It was Fuzzy Logix Founder and CEO Partha Sen’s passion for solving complex business decisions using quantitative methods, data mining and pattern recognition that led him to develop DB Lytix and found Fuzzy Logix.

Here in Partha’s Numbers Don’t Lie Blog you’ll see analytics in action and applied to a wide variety of scenarios.

US Presidential Elections - Updated Forecast

8 November 2016, 7:59 pm

by Partha Sen

Since I posted my blog yesterday, a few additional pieces of information have been available. Firstly, a few additional polls were available today. Secondly, some trends from early voting have been available throughout the day yesterday. I decided to take another look at my forecast based on these pieces of information.

The new polls do not alter any of the swing states (see Exhibit A). In Michigan, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, Clinton's margins have shrunk. In addition, the race in North Carolina seems to have tightened further and is basically a statistical dead heat. I am not surprised by these movements. In tight elections, one or two polls could swing the margins slightly from day to day. The bottom line is that in North Carolina, the race is incredibly tight.

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US Presidential Elections - The Race is Precariously Close

7 November 2016, 6:01 pm

by Partha Sen

Believe it or not, with one day to go for the 2016 US Presidential Elections, the race seems to be precariously close. Even though I have been quietly tracking the polls, I had decided that I will not write any blogs on this year’s presidential elections primarily, because I have been extremely busy with various initiatives. On Thursday last week while at a business dinner, as I was discussing my findings, I was persuaded by my colleagues to write this blog.

About two weeks ago, Hillary Clinton had a double-digit lead over Trump in the polls and one would have thought that it was all but over for Donald Trump. But, FBI Director James Comey delivered the October surprise when he wrote to Congress that FBI has discovered emails in another probe that could be related to the closed case of Hillary Clinton potentially mishandling classified information using a private email server. Since then Clinton’s significant lead over Trump evaporated and many battleground...more »

Brexit Part III - The Referendum is on a Razor's Edge

22 June 2016, 11:59 am

by Partha Sen

I am in London as I write part three of my Brexit blog series, I can feel the anticipation and nervousness about the outcome. The news channels are providing coverage on Brexit and expert analysis round the clock. Everywhere you go in the UK, you hear about Brexit. In fact, in the last 1 week that I have traveling in Europe, I am witnessing that the discussions about Brexit are not only limited to the United Kingdom but all over Europe. Obviously, the other popular topic in Europe these days is the UEFA Euro 2016.

Well, as far as the polls for Brexit are concerned, there has been some significant shift in momentum. It appears that since the beginning of June, the ‘Leave EU’ campaign has gathered steam and is now ahead of ‘Remain in EU’ by about a margin of 2.5% (see Chart A).
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Brexit Part II: Stay In EU has the Edge When Seen From a Different Perspective

10 June 2016, 3:08 pm

by Partha Sen

In the UK, opinion polls have been incorrect in the past and they are viewed with a high degree of skepticism. In the parliamentary elections last year, the opinion polls predicted a hung parliament like 2010. However, to everyone’s surprise, the conservatives won a comfortable majority and the Scottish National Party swept the elections in the north. After the experience from last year’s parliamentary elections, people are questioning the accuracy Brexit polls. Various hypotheses are being presented on why the Brexit polls could be wrong namely, inexperience of the pollsters with referendums, difference in propensity of turnout amongst those who prefer to ‘stay’ versus those who prefer ‘exit EU’, undecided voters who will sway the results at the last minute by voting for status quo, etc.

There is no doubt that the Brexit polls can be wrong. I my previous blog I have used the averages from the polls (pol off polls) and, used those averages...more »

Brexit Part I: The Referendum May Not be as Close as the Polls Suggest

17 April 2016, 10:18 am

by Partha Sen

On June 23rd, United Kingdom will vote in a referendum on whether to remain in the European Union. This referendum is being called ‘Brexit’ – British exit from the EU, a parallel with the ‘Grexit’, the referendum in Greece last year to stay in or leave the EU. I am not a pundit on political affairs in the United Kingdom or the EU but, I do have extensive experience of visiting the pubs in London. And, based on this experience, I can state with certainty that these days, Brexit is a hot topic in the pubs in all of United Kingdom.

As expected, Brexit is gathering some clouds on the political horizon as well. About a month ago even before the campaigning had intensified, Nicola Sturgeon, the First Minister in Scotland cautioned Prime Minister David Cameron to campaign on the merits of staying in the EU rather than using scare tactics. It is also being reported in the political circles that if the United Kingdom votes...more »

The Thrill of Analytics in IPL - Part I: What is a Par Score in an IPL Match?

10 April 2016, 7:09 am

by Partha Sen

The Indian Premier League (IPL) started today. In 2008 when the inaugural version of IPL was launched, the razzle-dazzle of this shorter format of the game definitely caught the attention of the cricket lovers. Some even argue that it roped in a completely new generation of fans into its fold, particularly, the younger generation who would rather indulge in the excitement of this shortest format of the game. Since its inauguration, the IPL has had its own share of problems. The most notorious amongst them being the controversy surrounding the spot-fixing and betting scandal of 2013. The betting scandal subsequently led to the suspension of two franchises - Chennai Super Kings and Rajasthan Royals. In spite of such hiccups, the games must go on and the so did the IPL. In the 2016 version of the IPL there are two new franchises – Rising Pune Super Giants and Gujarat Lions and the cricket lovers are awaiting another fun filled tournament.
As for...more »

T20 World Cup: The Final is Too Close to Call

3 April 2016, 5:52 am

by Partha Sen

The finals for the T20 world cup will be played at the famous Eden Gardens today and a new champion will be crowned. England are playing West Indies in the finals and, whoever wins will be the champion for a second time. England has won the T20 World Cup in 2010 and West Indies won it in 2012. When the tournament started, not many would have imagined that these two squads will be in the finals. One has to however give these two teams some credit for the resilience they have shown in this tournament in the face of adversity.
England lost the first match against the West Indies and were faced with a mammoth total from South Africa in the second match. Nonetheless, they never balked under pressure, maintained their pace of scoring and eventually beat South Africa with 2 balls to spare. In their third game against Afghanistan, England lost early wickets and were 85 for 7 in the 14th over. But some determined middle order batting put up a competitive...more »

Whose T20 World Cup is it Anyway?

28 March 2016, 11:44 am

by Partha Sen

The dust has settled and we have the four semi-finalists in the T20 World Cup. And after a few days of upsets and nail biting finishes, the four semi-finalists are West Indies, England, New Zealand and India. South Africa, who many would have expected to make it to the last four were eliminated in the round robins. Upsets like these are not uncommon in sports and in the T20 format, probably more frequent than in the 50-over ODI format. Now, the question is whose world cup is it anyway? And does a team possess significant advantage over the rest of the field. Having watched each and every game and analyzed quite a significant amount of data, I would say that at this stage, it’s still very competitive and it could be anybody’s crown. I think it is probably worth analyzing the performance of the four teams that are in the semis and evaluate their relative strengths.
In my last blog just prior to the inaugural match of the T20 World...more »

T20 World Cup: Do the Men in Blue Have the Advantage?

15 March 2016, 9:57 am

by Partha Sen

Charlotte, USA, March 15, 2016 6:00 AM

The T20 World Cup starts in a few hours and the first match will be played between India and New Zealand at the Vidharba Cricket Association Stadium at Nagpur. In the cricketing nation of India, expectations are high and the whole country will be cheering for the Men in Blue. It is widely anticipated that the Indian captain, Mahendra Singh Dhoni will probably call it a day after the T20 World Cup. Obviously, all of India is praying for Dhoni to win a second T20 World Cup. In some ways, Dhoni scripted the resurrection of Indian cricket in 2007 with a surprise win at the inaugural T20 World Cup held in South Africa. Thereafter, under his captaincy, Indian cricket achieved many laurels including the world championship in 2011. If the Men in Blue indeed manage to win the T20 world cup, it would be the epitome of success for the Indian captain.

Now, emotions aside, the question one needs to ask is whether...more »

Who will win Super Bowl 50? An analytical view

1 February 2016, 7:18 pm

by Partha Sen

Well, even though my Green Bay Packers are not in Super Bowl 50, I do feel proud of the fact that ‘Carolina Panthers’, the team from my city ‘Charlotte, North Carolina’ is in Super Bowl. This will be the second trip to Super Bowl for the Carolina Panthers. In 2004, they lost to the New England Patriots by a field goal in the dying minutes of the game.
For the last few years, a few friends have been telling me to forecast who will win Super Bowl based on statistical analysis. I have always thought that such an exercise is futile because the teams that make it to playoffs and Super Bowl are playing their best football and, what separates them on game day is better execution favored by pure luck. In other words, I have always thought that the outcome of playoffs and Super Bowl is purely random and therefore, difficult to predict. Nonetheless, after being requested by some friends repeatedly, I was motivated to perform some statistical analysis...more »